Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 17 – New York Jets 13

(6:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NYJ 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model