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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 70

New York Jets 13 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to NO 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis to NO 20 for 8 yards (54-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.40 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model