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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to NYJ 1 for 6 yards (21-M.Claiborne). Pass -2, YAC 8

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.95 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model