4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model