Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TEN 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 21 for -2 yards (54-C.Marsh, 47-E.Lee). TEN-33-T.Smith was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model