4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 20

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.07 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP