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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 20 – San Francisco 49ers 22

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 4-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.70 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model