Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Detroit Lions 7

(1:47) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to DET 36, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model