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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to DET 16, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.53 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model