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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 5

Detroit Lions 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP