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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 32

Detroit Lions 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP