Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 63

Detroit Lions 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 26

(1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 28 for -9 yards (58-C.Lawson).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.45 EP
71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -0.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model