Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(8:46) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to DET 41, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.94 EP
54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model