Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(5:55) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to DET 48, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.34 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model