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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 4-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model