Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – San Francisco 49ers 37

(8:17) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to SF 32, Center-49-C.Holba. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 40 for 8 yards (55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model