Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

(6:38) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to JAX 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.39 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model