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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model