Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:31) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to TEN 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 17 for 11 yards (55-C.Lynch). PENALTY on LA-10-P.Cooper, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.98 EP
70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model