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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 30-T.Gurley left tackle pushed ob at TEN 3 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model