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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(3:32) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TEN 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model