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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 20 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(14:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model