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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 87

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(8:47) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to TEN 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 31 for 1 yard (83-J.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.59 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model