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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 23 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 32-D.Fluellen [98-C.Barwin].

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.38 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.34 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model