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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 7

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.73 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model