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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:57) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model