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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to HOU 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.51 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP