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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at HOU 42 for 27 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.81 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model