Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 64

Houston Texans 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 25 for 21 yards (14-C.Thompson). PENALTY on HOU-31-T.Decoud, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.98 EP
75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model