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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 51

Houston Texans 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model