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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to HOU 34, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 13-B.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model