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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model