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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(12:05) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to DAL 26, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model