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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-20-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model