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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:16) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to SEA 1, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model