Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 99

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to DAL 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer to SEA 48 for 6 yards (20-J.Lane). PENALTY on DAL-41-K.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 48.

The Three Options

GO -4.09 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.19 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 99, worth -6.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model