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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.13 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model