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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 19, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 11 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP