Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(8:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to MIN 24, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 36 for 12 yards (58-J.Anderson). PENALTY on MIN-20-M.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model