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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, downed by MIN-50-E.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model