Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Chicago Bears 7

(1:08) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to CHI 2, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.66 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model