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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 91

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 46 for 4 yards (85-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.11 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 91, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 48, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model