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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to CHI 8, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.21 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP