4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 6

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(11:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Inman (29-X.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model