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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to CHI 36, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 43, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model