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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 2

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen to MIN 1 for 1 yard (98-L.Joseph; 97-E.Griffen).

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model