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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 2 at the 27
Cleveland Browns 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28
What Actually Happened
(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short left to 19-C.Coleman.
The Three Options
GO
+1.32 EP
What Happened
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.31 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP
KICK
+1.52 EP
Model's Pick
- 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
