Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(6:03) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-36-D.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.25 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model