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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 99

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 27 yards to CLE 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-10-S.Coates. Punt was deflected by 44-Matakevich.

The Three Options

GO -4.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model