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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to PHI 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -2.24 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model